One of the most interesting concepts in the study of political party election is the power of incumbency. Many have asked questions as to why many times the ruling parties across Africa retain power and win elections? Also questions are asked as to why have the opposition parties failed to dislodge the governing parties? Of course rigging has been the usual cry from the opposition parties. In this brief article I share the notion that the major mistake the opposition parties make is to undermine the power of the incumbency in many of the southern African States. I will show the prevailing power of incumbency in some of the southern African states which include; Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa, Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Democratic Republic of Congo and Malawi.
Now elections have been one of the major systems used to bring political parties into government. Through elections, parties have formed governments and some have been dislodged and humiliated. Individuals also through elections have made it to parliament (based on the system used) while some have miserably failed and recalled back by their constituencies through the vote. In all this, citizens have demonstrated that they hold the power to decide the destiny of their countries.
To begin with in Angola since independence in 1975, the country has had a very unstable electoral life because of the civil war which only ended few years ago after the death of the Angolan lebel leader, Jonas Savimbi. However since their first election, the ruling party the MPLA led by the incumbent President José Eduardo dos Santos, has never lost any election. They have managed to win elections and continued to govern through the power of incumbency. The ruling party has an advantage as the party in government to move extra mile in delivering the basic needs of the Angolan people.
In Botswana, the ruling party currently led by the Lt General Seretse Khama Ian Khama, the BDP continues to rule Botswana. This party has been in power since independence. Sir Serese Khama was the first President then came, Sir Ketumile Masire and Festus Mogae. In as much as the opposition are in existence, Botswana politics shows that the power of incumbency is hot and it may be argued that the nation practices democracy in a one party state.
In the DRC, in as much as the Banyamulenge overthrew the Mobutu Seseseko through military invasion, they managed to reform themselves into a political party machine which through the Kabila’s is now ruling the country. Since the coming in of the Kabila’s in the Congo politics, party politics have been an active venture where elections have help to determine who gets into state palace. In the elections that have taken place in the DRC, the ruling party, the PPRD has managed to return power in as much as the nation is fragile democratically. The opposition party the UDPS led by their key man the veteran Etienne Tshisekedi has failed to dislodge the power of the incumbency in the country.
A look at the Basotho electoral politics shows that Mosisili’s LCD has been in power since 1997. Now in all this Basothos’s political dispensation, the oppositions parties, the LPC and ABP have tried to fight but they have failed. The power of incumbency has always prevailed in the Basotho politics such that Pakalitha Mosisili’s LCD continues to serve his Majesty government.
In Malawi, since the birth of multiparty politics, the incumbent has never lost any election. In 1994-2004, Muluzi’s UDF won the elections in as much as that time the opposition was more popular due to the worsening economic situation the nation was going through. Also since 2004 the current DPP Government remained in government and won all the elections they had. However the tricky situation is this coming elections where the Peoples’ Party will be contesting as a ruling party after having ruled the country for only two years after the death of the former president Prof. Bingu wa Muthalika. However looking into what goes on in the power of the incumbent regime, we can still then argue that the ruling party as usual has more chances of winning the coming elections than the other opposition parties. This is because the doctrine of the political party and the power of incumbency is to their favour and they are more advantaged than the rest of the political parties in the country.
However the Mozambican political story shows that the nation has two main political parties the Renamo and the Frelimo. However since independence, the Frelimo has been in power. All the Presidents who have ruled Mozambique have been from he Frelimo party and this has been due to the power of the incumbency. Of course the Renamo in the past elections tried to gain some grounds but could not manage to dislodge the Frelimo party.
In Nambia, the liberation party SWAPO, currently led by the incumbent President Pohamba, continues to rule the country. The opposition which is weak in that country can mot match the power of the liberation party which makes it difficult in terms of the opposition party politicking. Before Pohamba took over government, the nation’s Father and founder, Dr. Sam Nujoma ushered the nation into independence and was the first democratically elected President of the country. Since then the Namibian party politics in controlled within the parameter of the SWAPO politics.
As regard South Africa, the African National Congress, which is the oldest African political party in power, remains the most popular party in the country. Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ANC has remain the only ruling party and the power of incumbency in this country is too strong than in any other African country. in as much as key opposition parties the DA, COPE and the IFP have come on the nation’s political scene, they do not have enough strength to overpower the and dislodge the incumbent ANC. Signs on the South African political walls are clear that the ANC will rule the country longer than any political party in the political life of African continent. This is due to the principles and pillars that govern the party. Dr. Nelson Mandela was the first democratically elected president followed by Thabo Mbeki then currently the nation is ruled by His Excellency the State President Jacob Zuma.
In Zimbabwe, the power of incumbency has proved to work a miracle in that in as much as the nation went through hard economic crisis, the incumbency survival formula worked out. The history of the nation through the ZANU PF continues to be the key determining factor in the life of the nation’s party politics. Currently under a Unity Government with the opposition MDC, Zimbabwe’s politics continues to be directed by the power of incumbency. Till will be a determining factor as to how long the incumbent regime the ZANU PF will be dislodged by the MDC or any other party that may come on the political way of the nation.
Having looked into the political scenario in Southern African countries, the Malawi situation is a kind of tricky at the moment even though we are aware that many times incumbent regime do not fail to get back to government. However we need to get to understand that Malawi’s power of incumbency is unique in that whoever gets into government has the chance of retaining power. The economic crisis the nation is going through will not do any big harm to stop the ruling party to get back into government. Also the ruling PP through their political party strategist (if any) must have put together a winning strategy ready for the 2014 electoral battle. Also it is important to note that in any battle you need to know the skills and expertise that your enemy has so that you can properly come up with the kind of strategy that can give you victory. Just as the incumbent regimes across Africa continue to enjoy this political game, it is expected that if the ruling PP in Malawi can put themselves and get focused they then could, according to the doctrine of political party incumbency, get back to government and continue ruling.
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